Significant political change for Surrey

Two political events with important ramifications for the future took place this week.

The first one is purely local – but it is very significant. Longtime Surrey Coun. Judy Villeneuve has joined Mayor Dianne Watts’ Surrey First group, bringing to six the number of Surrey Firsters on council.

In doing so, she shocked longtime Coun. Bob Bose. Villeneuve was first elected in 1988, when Bose was mayor. Both were part of the NDP-backed Surrey Civic Electors.

Since SCE bowed out of the Surrey political arena, she has been an independent – consistently finishing near the top of the polls in each election.

She is widely-respected by many people of all or no political persuasions, and it is obvious from her vote totals that her supporters come from almost all parts of the political spectrum.

Villeneuve and Watts have forged a good working relationship, even before Watts became mayor. They think alike on a number of social issues, such as homelessness and social planning.

The bonds were strengthened after Watts left Surrey Electors Team in a dispute with then-mayor Doug McCallum – a dispute that ultimately led to McCallum’s, and SET’s, downfall.

Watts has scored a major coup in luring Villeneuve to Surrey First, which the mayor envisions as a coalition of independents who will pool resources to run as a group in an election campaign.

They will also be in basic agreement on issues, although free to vote any way they choose, according to the mayor.

Surrey First candidates will have a big edge over independents, simply because of the high cost of running in a Surrey municipal election.

Traditionally, SET has raised large amounts of money for elections. I expect much of that money will be available to Surrey First this year.

Villeneuve also brings to Surrey First a broader base of support – a base of support that might otherwise go to a more left-leaning group like Surrey Civic Coalition.

This move will hurt SCC, if it is involved in this year’s campaign.

It appears that Watts and Surrey First are in very good shape as they prepare for the November municipal election.

Another event with significance for an upcoming election was Tuesday’s provincial budget.

Finance Minister Carole Taylor, who has proven to be one of the most astute politicians in Victoria, crafted a masterful budget.

She somehow balanced the need to “go green” with a range of tax cuts and incentives.

The net effect is a strong step towards getting people to think differently about how they consume energy and emit carbon dioxide – and ultimately, the greenhouse gas issue devolves on each of us.

This budget has taken almost all the potential wind from the sails of the opposition NDP, and it is a death blow to the Greens, who have little other than environmental issues to campaign on.

How will this play out in Surrey in the May, 2009 provincial election?

It will probably give the Liberals a chance at winning one or two more seats.

There may or may not be redistribution of seats, depending on whether the BC Liberals are willing to accept the Electoral Boundaries Commission report, which was issued last week.

If it passes, Surrey will have eight ridings in the next election – up from seven.

Three are pretty solidly Liberal – Surrey-White Rock, Surrey-Cloverdale and Surrey-Tynehead. Three are pretty strongly NDP – Surrey-Whalley, Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Newton.

The other two ridings – Surrey-Fleetwood and Surrey-Panorama, are more likely to be in play. Surrey-Fleetwood, if redistribution goes ahead, is likely to be an “open” seat, in the sense that there will be no incumbent running.

Current Surrey-Tynehead MLA Dave Hayer is likely to contest the “new” Surrey-Tynehead riding.

Surrey-Panorama is held by NDPer Jagrup Brar, who has been a popular MLA. However, the demographics of his riding are such that it could be a very close contest.

Taylor’s budget has solidified the Liberals’ hold on power and, unless something drastic happens, they are going to win fairly easily next May.

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